突变评价法在水库调度多目标风险评价中的应用

Catastrophe Evaluation Method and Its Application to Multi-objective Risk Evaluation of Reservoir Operation

针对水库运行期防洪、发电、供水和航运等目标相互影响,调度目标和影响因子相对重要性难以准确判断造成多目标风险综合评价难度较大的问题,在构建风险评价指标体系的基础上,建立了基于突变评价法的水库调度多目标风险分析模型。根据水库主要功能的不同,分别明确了将综合风险最低作为调度目标和防洪风险作为严格约束条件的两种多目标风险评价方法。将该方法应用于工程实例,评价结果与已有优化调度方案较为一致,说明该方法具有较好的可靠性与实用性,可为水库调度多目标风险综合控制提供一种新的方法和思路。

Reservoir operation objectives such as flood control,power generation,water supply and shipping all have influence on each other.Meanwhile,relative importance of operation objectives and influence factors are not clear.Therefore,it is difficult to evaluate the multi-objective risk of reservoir operation accurately.Combined with risk assessment index,multi-objective risk analysis model for reservoir operation based on catastrophe evaluation method is established in this paper.According to the different main functions of reservoirs,two multi-objective risk assessment methods,which take the lowest comprehensive risk as the dispatching objective and flood control risk as strict constraints,are defined respectively.The application to the risk assessment of Danjiangkou Reservoir operation shows that the evaluation result is in good agreement with the existing optimal operation schemes,and verifies rationality of the proposed methods,which preferably offer a new approach and idea to risk management of reservoir operation.