基于情境变量的CBA联赛比赛胜负规律探析

An Analysis of the Winning and Losing Rules of CBA Based on Situation Variables

针对多种情境变量对篮球竞技比赛的交互影响,提出了基于情境变量下对影响比赛胜负的关键指标进行分析的思路;通过K-means聚类对均衡比赛和失衡比赛给予界定,同时纳入比赛地点(主/客)、比赛类型(均衡/失衡)、比赛结果(胜/负)3种情境变量,分别采用灰色B型关联理论与二元Logistic回归分别对CBA联赛不同比赛情境中技术指标与比赛结果创建数学模型,结果表明不同比赛情境中影响比赛胜负的关键指标存在一定的差异性,其中,后场篮板和抢断是各情境中影响比赛胜负共同存在的致胜指标,基于此,建议教练员应根据不同比赛情境重点训练影响比赛胜负的关键技术指标。

Aiming at the interaction of various contextual variables on basketball competitions,this paper puts forward the idea of analyzing the key indicators that affect the success or failure of basketball competitions based on contextual variables.K-means clustering is used to define balanced competition and unbalanced competition,and three contextual variables are included in the contest location(host/guest),type(balance/unbalance)and result(win/loss).Grey B-type correlation theory and binary logistic regression are used to establish mathematical models for technical indicators and contest results in different contest situations of CBA league.The results show that the key indicators affecting contest success or failure in different contest situations are the key indicators.There are some differences,among which backcourt rebounds and steals are the winning indicators that affect the common existence of the game.It is suggested that coaches should focus on training key technical indicators according to different competition situations.