金融杠杆率、房价泡沫与金融稳定性

Financial Leverage,Urban Housing Bubble and Financial Stability——An Empirical Study Based on the PVAR Model of 35 Large and Medium-sized Cities

基于房地产预期均衡价格增长率模型对中国城市房价泡沫进行科学测度,并在理论分析的基础上,以2000~2018年中国35个大中城市的面板数据为样本,利用系统矩估计方法和PVAR模型探究金融杠杆率、城市房价泡沫与金融稳定3者间的动态关系。研究结果表明:金融杠杆与房价泡沫存在相互促进的自增强联动效应,二者的攀升均不利于保持金融稳定;相对于房价泡沫膨胀,泡沫缩小对金融稳定性的冲击更强。因此,中国现阶段应积极稳妥地逐步降低金融杠杆率,精准微调地挤出房地产价格泡沫,合理抑制金融杠杆与房价泡沫之间的相互刺激,谨防调控政策实施中的“双向失调”风险。

Based on the expected equilibrium price model of real estate,this paper assesses China’s urban housing price bubbles.Using the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2000 to 2018 as samples,we adopt the method of system moment estimation and panel vector auto-regression model to explore the dynamic relationship among the financial leverage ratio,the urban housing bubble and the financial stability.The research shows that there is a self-reinforcing linkage effect between financial leverage and house price bubbles.Their increase is not conducive to maintaining financial stability.Also,compared to the bubble of housing prices,the impact of bubble narrowing on financial stability is stronger.Thus,China should actively and steadily reduce the rate of financial leverage at the present stage,extract the real estate price bubble precisely,and reasonably curb the mutual stimulation between financial leverage and house price bubbles,and guard against the two-way imbalance risks in the implementation of regulation policies.