中国信息产业发展的经济效应

The Impact of Information Industry Development on Chinese Economy

基于信息产业通过规模效应与产业融合效应促进经济增长的理论,通过投入产出系数、结构分解分析(SDA)及归因矩阵模型分析中国信息产业的增长动力及产业融合情况。研究结果表明:中国信息产业发展动力已经由出口拉动转向内需拉动,进口替代有明显提升但进口依赖度依然较高,技术效应尚未产生明显作用;在宏观层面上,中国经济的信息化程度逐步加强;在微观产业层面上,各产业对信息产业的需求系数呈现较大差异,且在观察期内存在较大波动,技术密集型制造业、服务业与信息产业的融合度较高,工业部门对利用信息技术实现产业升级的需求更为迫切。

Based on the mechanism of scale-and integration-driven economic growth,this paper uses input-output coefficients,structural decomposition analysis and causative matrix models to investigate the driving factors for the growth and integration of Chinese information industry.The results indicate that there is a tendency in the information industry sector that the main driver of growth is shifting from export to domestic demand and import substitution is obvious.However,dependency on import is still high,and yet technical effect is still weak.Informationization of Chinese economy is intensified,but demand coefficients of other industries for information sector vary and fluctuate during the period of observation.The technology intensive manufacturing industry and services have been highly integrated with information technology,and it seems quite urgent for other industrial sectors to upgrade with the support of information technologies.