中国人口结构变迁与财政可持续性研究

China’s Population Structure Change and Fiscal Sustainability

在经济转型与结构调整的大背景下,财政可持续性问题重新引起了人们的担忧。将人口结构变迁与财政可持续性纳入同一研究框架,将人口结构作为影响财政可持续性的重要变量来考察。研究结果表明:人口自然结构变量中老年抚养比与财政可持续性呈现负相关关系,少年抚养比与财政可持续性呈现正相关关系;人口经济社会结构变量中第二产业占比对财政可持续性变动具有负向影响,第三产业占比、人力资本、城市化、人口迁移4个变量对财政可持续性具有正向的影响;另外,人口自然结构变量与人口经济社会结构变量具有明显的“外溢效应”。最后,依据理论分析与实证检验结论,提出改善财政可持续性的政策建议。

As the economic growth slows down due to economic transformation and structural adjustment,the issue of fiscal sustainability has reignited concerns.By integrating demographic change and fiscal sustainability into the same research framework,we consider population structure as one of the most important factors affecting fiscal sustainability.The results show that if we look at the population’s natural structural variable,there is a negative correlation between the old-age dependency ratio and fiscal sustainability,and the juvenile dependency ratio is positively correlated with fiscal sustainability.Judging from the population economic and social structure variable,the proportion of the secondary industry has a negative impact on fiscal sustainability.The third industry’s ratio,human capital,urbanization,and population migration have positive effects on fiscal sustainability.In addition,population natural structure variables and population economic and social structure variables all have“spill effect”.Finally,drawing on the simple theoretical analysis and empirical test results,this paper proposes policies for improving fiscal sustainability.