沭河流域季节实测径流变化特性分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Seasonal Measured Runoff Changes of Shuhe River Basin

分析实测径流变化特性对提高区域水资源利用效率有一定的指导意义。基于沭河主要控制站—大官庄水文站1958—2016年逐月实测径流资料,采用累积滤波器法、Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Morlet小波分析法等方法分析了大官庄站春、夏、秋和冬季实测径流量的变化趋势、突变点、周期性和阶段特征。结果表明,各季实测径流分别呈增加、减少、增加和增加变化,仅夏季、冬季变化趋势是显著的(依次为90%、95%显著性水平);各季实测径流存在多个突变点,1980年以前突变点与流域内水利工程建设时段较一致,1980年以后突变点与流域降水剧烈变化较一致;各季实测径流变化主周期依次为12、12、11和7 a,同时各季实测径流存在显著的丰枯阶段性特征。上述研究表明,流域各季实测径流变化十分复杂,同时夏季的工农业生产和生活用水将面临极大挑战。

The analysis of characteristics of measured runoff changes can provide certain guidance for improving the utiliza⁃tion efficiency of the regional water resources.According to the monthly measured runoff data from 1958 to 2016 of Daguan⁃zhuang hydrologic station which is the primary control station of Shuhe River Basin,the change tendency,catastrophe points,periodicity and stage characteristics are obtained by applying the cumulative filter method,Mann-Kendall trend analysis method,Mann-Kendall saltatorial test method and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results indicate that sea⁃sonal measured runoff respectively shows an increasing,decreasing,increasing and increasing tendency,but only the change tendency of measured runoff of summer and winter is significant(90%and 95%significance level in turn).Mean⁃while,there are some catastrophe points among the seasonal measured runoff,and the catastrophe points was consistent with the construction period of water conservancy projects in the basin before 1980,and the catastrophe points was consis⁃tent with the dramatic change of precipitation in the basin after 1980.At the same time,seasonal runoff has 12 years,12 years,11 years and 7 years cycle period,and seasonal measured runoff also has significant wet and dry stage characteris⁃tics.The research results above of the characteristics of seasonal measured runoff changes show that the change characteris⁃tics of the seasonal measured runoff are very complex,and the industrial and agricultural production and people's lives may face great challenges in summer.