摘要
本文基于经济驱动力-能源消耗压力-能源消耗效率指标,设计脱钩时态判别框架.采用Tapio弹性分析法,评价京津冀经济发展与能源消耗的脱钩时态,剖析内在脱钩机理.并建立Logistic回归预测模型,对京津冀能源消耗进行预测.研究表明,京津冀经济发展与能源消耗仅已呈现弱脱钩态势,推动京津冀经济发展与能源消耗强脱钩的关键是实现河北能源消耗"零增长"或"负增长".预计2025-2030年左右,京津冀经济发展与能源消耗利用有望保持绝对脱钩的发展态势.
Based on the index of economic driving force-energy consumption pressure-energy consumption efficiency, the framework of decoupling temporal discrimination is designed. And the elastic analysis method is given to evaluate the decoupling trend of economic development from energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Then, the internal mechanism of decoupling is comprehensively analyzed according to the changing trend of energy consumption growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Finally, the Logistic regression model is established to forecast the energy consumption of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future. The results show that the economic development and energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region show weak decoupling state. And it will be strong decoupling state when Hebei energy consumption achieve "zero growth" or "negative growth". It is expected that around 2025-2030, the economic development and energy consumption and utilization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will remain absolutely decoupled.
作者
吴丹
曹思奇
WU Dan;CAO Siqi(Col.of Economics and Business Administration,North China Univ.of Tech.,100144,Beijing,China)
出处
《北方工业大学学报》
2020年第2期1-6,共6页
Journal of North China University of Technology
基金
北京市社会科学基金青年项目“京津冀协同发展评价体系与对策研究”(17GLC064)
北京市自然科学基金面上项目“京津冀协同发展下水资源与产业结构双向优化适配研究”(9202005)
北方工业大学毓优人才项目“科技创新视角下京津冀资源能耗管理绩效及其协同治理能力评价体系研究”
北方工业大学学生科技活动项目“京津冀经济发展与能源资源环境脱钩评价研究”.
关键词
京津冀
能源
脱钩
机理
LOGISTIC回归模型
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
energy
decoupling
mechanism
Logistic regression model
