新型城镇化与经济增长关系--基于河北省的实证分析

The Relationship between New Urbanization and Economic Growth: Based on the Empirical Analysis of Hebei Province

与传统的单一城镇化率指标不同,本文从经济发展、人口、生活质量、公共服务、基础设施、环境等6个方面考虑新型城镇化问题,并利用主成分分析,建立了新型城镇化衡量指标.以河北省为例,创建了新型城镇化与经济增长之间的VAR模型,脉冲响应分析结果显示新型城镇化与经济增长是相互影响的;然而,格兰杰因果关系显示,新型城镇化不是经济增长的原因,这可能是城镇化影响经济增长的效果在短时间内难以凸显,而在长时间内效果比较明显.最后对新型城镇化的发展提出了一些政策建议.

Different from other analysis only based on the traditional index of single urbanization rate, this paper considers the new urbanization from six aspects such as economic development, population, quality of life, public service, infrastructure, and environment. We establish new urbanization measure index using the principal component analysis. Take Hebei Province as an example, the VAR model between the new urbanization and economic growth is established. The impulse response analysis shows that the new urbanization and economic growth are interrelated. However, the Granger causality test shows that the new urbanization is not the Granger cause of economic growth. The effect of urbanization on economic growth may not be highlighted in a short time, but the effect is obvious in a long time. Finally, it puts forward some policy recommendations for the development of new urbanization.