中国对东盟十国农产品出口贸易潜力研究——基于引力模型的实证分析

China's Agricultural Product Export Trade Potential to ASEAN:An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

中国入世以来,与东盟十国的货物贸易关系愈加紧密,农产品是其中长期具有比较优势的重要部分。文章对2002—2018年中国对东盟十国农产品出口贸易的潜力情况进行了研究。基于引力模型,分析了中国农产品出口到东盟十国的重要影响因素,并测算了历年来的出口贸易潜力。结果表明:中国与东盟十国的GDP、东盟十国的人均GDP、中国-东盟自贸区的建立、贸易双方是否存在共同陆路边界等因素对中国农产品对东盟十国的出口有正向显著影响;国际金融危机的爆发对中国农产品对东盟十国的出口有负向显著影响;中国对东盟十国的农产品出口潜力巨大,但开发不均衡,面临市场空间逐步缩小的问题。最后,根据研究结论制定了相对应的发展建议。

Since China became a member of WTO,the goods trade relationship with ASEAN has become closer.Agricultural products are an important part of which has long-term comparative advantages.This paper studied the potential of China's agricultural product exports to ASEAN from 2002 to 2018.Based on the gravity model,this paper analyzed the important factors affecting the export of China's agricultural product to ASEAN,and measured the export trade potential over the years.The results show that the GDP of China and ASEAN,the per capita GDP of ASEAN,the establishment of the CAFTA,and the common land border between two countries have a significant positive impact on the export of China's agricultural product to ASEAN;the outbreak of the international financial crisis has a significant negative impact;China has huge potential for export of agricultural product to ASEAN,but its development is unbalanced and faces the problem of gradually shrinking market space.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding development recommendations based on the research conclusion.