中国友好城市关系是否促进了城市出口贸易--基于二模网络视角

Does China’s Friendship City Relationship Promote City Exports--Based on the View of Two-mode Network

本文基于社会网络分析方法首次构建中国城市-国家(地区)友好城市关系和城市出口二模网络,采用社会资本理论和跳板理论阐述友好城市关系促进城市出口的影响机理,利用2007-2015年中国友好城市关系数据和中国城市向世界各国(地区)出口数据,构建指数随机图模型(ERGM)对友好城市网络的贸易促进作用进行检验。实证结果表明:友好城市网络能够显著促进城市出口网络的形成和发展;相邻城市的友好城市网络所发挥的作用对友好城市网络具有一定替代效应,但后者对出口关系形成和发展作用明显更强。此外,友好城市关系对推动中国城市与"一带一路"沿线国家(地区)发展出口关系的潜力有待挖掘。

By constructing the Chinese City-Country(Region) friendship city relationship and the city export two-mode network based on the social network analysis method,we explored the mechanisms through which the friendship city relationship influenced exports via the lens of social capital and springboard theories. An exponential random graph model(ERGM) has been built based on the data of China’s friendship cities and the export data of Chinese cities from 2007 to 2015,to examine the effect of friendship city relationship on related city exports. The empirical results demonstrate that a city’s friendship network could boost the formation and development of the city’s export relations significantly. Neighboring city’s friendship network could partially substitute the influence of a city’s own friendship network on its export trades,but apparently the latter has stronger effect. Additionally,further research is required to test whether the friendship city network could facilitate the establishment and development of export trade relations between Chinese cities and the Belt and Road cities(regions).