制度质量、多边金融机构支持对PPP项目成效的影响研究--基于东盟国家PPP项目数据的实证研究

Research of the Impact of Institutional Quality and Support From Multilateral Financial Institutions on the Effectiveness of PPP Projects--Based on the PPP Database of ASEAN Countries

本文采用1990-2017年的31个完成、43个取消及787个正在运营的政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)项目作为研究对象,使用二分类Logistic方法和多元回归分析,通过定性和定量分析PPP项目内部的风险结构以及项目最终成效的影响因素,探寻PPP项目所在国家(地区)的制度因素和多边金融机构支持对项目成功或失败造成的影响。研究结果显示:PPP项目成功与否和投资总额、项目具体类别存在负相关关系;国家开放程度、是否有多边金融机构参与和一国PPP项目成功与否存在正相关关系;制度质量对PPP成功与否的影响不显著,但制度质量对社会资本参与程度有重要影响。

China has not been carrying out PPP projects for a long time and does not have sufficient experience.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to conduct in-depth discussion on the existing PPP projects in ASEAN countries and find out their success and failure experience.In this paper,based on 31 completed projects,43 canceled projects and 787 operating PPP project between 1990 and 2017,the binary classification methods and multivariate logistic regression analysis was adopted,through qualitative and quantitative analysis of the PPP project risk of internal structure as well as the factors that influenced the final project results.We explored the effects on the project success or failure from the institutional factors and multilateral financial institutions’support of PPP projects host countries,in order to provide experience for the successful cooperation of infrastructure projects between China and ASEAN countries.The conclusions are as follows:firstly,the success of PPP projects is negatively correlated with the total investment and specific types of projects.Secondly,there is a positive correlation between the degree of national openness and the participation of multilateral financial institutions and the success of one country’s PPP project.Thirdly,the impact of institutional quality on the success of PPP is not significant,but institutional quality has an important impact on the degree of participation of social capital.