中国农业发展机遇研究:基于政府规制的视角

Research on China’s Agricultural Development Opportunities:Based on the Perspective of Government Regulation

2020年1月15日,中美双方签署第一阶段谈判的达成协议,美国政府急于保护自己的农业产业,规定了中国政府近期必须采购的金额。在这种背景下,本文分析了中美贸易摩擦对两国农业的各自影响,发现中美贸易摩擦对美国农业和美国农民伤害程度远大于中国。同时,中美贸易摩擦也为我国农业的未来发展提供了极好的改革机遇。在这种国际局势下,本文从政府规制理论的视角出发,认为未来的我国农业具体改革方向应具体包括以下几个方面:一是我国政府应继续韬光养晦地深化国内经济结构改革;二是我国政府应继续坚持“以农为本”的根本原则不动摇;三是我国政府应继续深化农业领域的供给侧结构性改革;四是继续发挥政府的引导作用来构建现代农业发展之路并提升我国农产品的国际竞争力;五是我国政府应继续与国际社会建立更广泛、更全面的农业合作,来降低单一国别对我国粮食进出口造成的政治经济风险。需要提醒的是,在美国取消中国发展中国家的最惠国待遇及当前新冠肺炎疫情的影响,政府规制及引导作为更加重要,在确保粮食安全的基础上,改变中国农业产业结构,实现中国人民从“吃饱”到“吃好”的转变。

On January 15,2020,China and the United States signed an agreement in the first phase of negotiations.The US government is eager to protect its agricultural industry,and stipulates the amount that the Chinese government must purchase in the near future.In this context,the paper analyzes the respective impacts of Sino-US trade frictions on the agriculture of the two countries,and finds that Sino-US trade frictions are much more harmful to US agriculture and American farmers than China.At the same time,Sino-US trade frictions also provide excellent reform opportunities for the future development of China’s agriculture.In this international situation,from the perspective of government regulation theory,the paper believes that the specific direction of future agricultural reform in China should include the following aspects:Firstly,the Chinese government should continue to hide its deepening and deepen the reform of the domestic economic structure;Secondly,we should continue to adhere to the fundamental principle of“based on agriculture”.Thirdly,the Chinese government should continue to deepen the supply-side structural reforms in the agricultural field.Fourthly,the Chinese government should continue to play the guiding role of the government to build a modern agricultural development road and enhance China’s agricultural products.Fifthly,the Chinese government should continue to establish broader and more comprehensive agricultural cooperation with the international community to reduce the political and economic risks caused by a single country to China’s grain import and export.It needs to be reminded that because the United States cancels the most-favored-nation treatment of Chinese developing countries and the current impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic,government regulation and guidance are more important.On the basis of ensuring food security,we will change the structure of China’s agricultural industry and realize the food transformation of the Chinese people from“full”to“good”.