突发公共卫生事件多维智库研判模型及其应用

Multi-dimensional intelligence model for public health emergencies and its application

[目的/意义]笔者旨在科学合理的分析突发公共卫生事件,为决策提供系统、详实的情报和建议。[方法/过程]以智库DIIS理论与方法中的综合研判环节为基础,构建了突发公共卫生事件多维智库研判模型,对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情进行了分析。[结果/结论]笔者所构建的公共卫生事件多维研判模型包括主体、客体、介质、进程、场域5个方面,包含多主体、多对象、多属性、多因子、多渠道、多介质、多层次、多阶段、多维度、多尺度等要素的相互关联和作用。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中,多方应急主体依据机构职责和社会分工采取了相应的应急行为。智库为应对突发公共卫生事件提供科研支持的作用尤为凸显。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对中国社会和经济的发展造成了不良影响,但也为社会的现代化、智能化创造了契机。

[Purpose/Significance]The public health emergencies need to be analyzed scientifically and reasonably.Their details and in-depth information are very important for decision-making.[Method/Process]Based on the DIIS theory and methodology in think tanks,this paper constructs a multi-dimensional intelligence model for public health emergencies.The model is further used in the analysis of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia.[Results/Conclusions]The multi-dimensional intelligence model of public health events includes five aspects,namely subject,object,medium,process and field.In the model,multi-subject,multi-item,multi-attribute,multi-factor,multi-method,multi-matter,multi-layer,multi-stage,multi-aspect and multi-scale are correlative and interactive.In the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia,the subjects of emergency management took corresponding actions according to their social responsibilities.Think tanks provide special scientific support for dealing with the public health emergency.The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia has a negative effect on the development of society and economy,but it also created an opportunity for the modernization and intellectualization.