堤防工程标准化管理体系风险评估方法

Risk Assessment Method for Standardized ManagementSystem of Dike Engineering

为了完善堤防工程管理体系,依托鄱阳湖区重点堤防工程,将风险管理理论与堤防工程工作、技术、管理和考核标准化体系有机结合,建立了基于风险的堤防工程标准化管理体系,并且提出了标准化管理体系风险评估方法。首先,确定我国中部地区堤防工程生命、经济和社会与环境风险标准图;再借助风险矩阵法拟定生命、经济和社会与环境风险考核指标系数,估计综合考核指标系数,并将其融入标准化考核管理中得到基于风险的堤防工程标准化管理评分;最后,根据评分值来评价堤防工程标准化管理是否合格。结果表明:建立的堤防工程标准化管理体系不仅可为制定科学合理的堤防失事风险管理决策及措施提供理论和技术支持,而且可为其他堤防工程运行管理提供借鉴。

A risk-based standardized management system of dike engineering is established by integrating the risk management theory with the work,technology,management and evaluation standardized systems of dike engineering.A risk assessment approach for the standardized management system is also proposed.The key dike projects in the Poyang Lake area are taken as typical cases.The standard maps of life,economic and environmental risks of dike engineering in China are determined at first.Subsequently,the risk matrix method is adopted to compute the assessment index coefficients for the life,economic and social environmental risks,respectively,and estimate the comprehensive assessment index coefficient.The risk-based standardized management scores of dike engineering are obtained through incorporating the comprehensive assessment index coefficient into the standardized evaluation management.Finally,the scores are used to evaluate whether the standardized management of dike engineering is qualified.The results indicate that the established standardized management system of dike engineering provides not only theoretical and technical supports for working out the scientific and rational failure risk management decisions and measures for dikes,but also references for operation management of other dike projects.