浙江省水安全状态及其时空变化特征研究

Evaluation on spatio-temporal variation characteristics of water safety in Zhejiang Province

结合水安全内涵及浙江省水情,运用熵值法构建了水资源、水经济、水生态、水环境、水工程五维一体的综合评价指标体系,并基于2008~2016年浙江省设区市面板数据,对浙江省水安全状态及其时空特征进行了实证研究。结果显示:①从时间层面看,研究期内浙江省水安全状态呈现出3个阶段的特征,即稳健增长期(2008~2010年)、紊乱波动期(2010~2013年)和高速增长期(2013~2016年);②从空间层面看,浙江省水安全状态空间异质性显著,并呈现出"东北强,西南弱"的特征,与省域经济社会发展格局相契合;③从动态变化层面看,浙江省水安全状态的区域差距逐渐缩小,其优化速度呈现出"东北慢,东南快"的格局。在上述研究结果的基础上,提出了相关的对策建议,以期改善浙江省的水安全状态,促进省域水安全系统均衡、充分的发展。

In consideration of the connotation of water safety and the water situation in Zhejiang Province,we established a comprehensive evaluation index system in five dimensions:water resources,water economy,water ecology,water environment and water engineering.On the basis of the panel data from 2008 to 2016 of each district and city in Zhejiang Province,we analyzed the water safety state and spatial-temporal variation characteristics.The results suggested that:(1)From the perspective of time,the water safety state of Zhejiang Province has experienced three stages during the study period,i.e.,steady growth period from 2008 to 2010,disorder fluctuation period from 2008 to 2013 and rapid growth period from 2013 to 2016.(2)From the perspective of space,the spatial heterogeneity of water safety state is significant and shows the characteristics of"strong in northeast Zhejiang,weak in southwest Zhejiang",which is in accordance with the pattern of economic and social development in the province.(3)From the perspective of dynamic change,the regional difference in the water safety state has gradually become smaller.Besides,the optimization speed shows a pattern of"slow in northeast Zhejiang,fast in southeast Zhejiang".In this paper,we also put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions to improve the state of water safety in Zhejiang Province and achieve a balanced and full development of provincial water safety system.