长江上游ECMWF降水和径流预报产品评估

Evaluation on application effect of precipitation and runoff forecasting products in upper Yangtze River released by ECMWF

欧洲中期天气预报中心近年发布了季节性的GloFAS Seasonal径流和SEAS5降水集合预报产品。选取长江上游6个控制站的径流预报及4个分区的面雨量预报为研究对象,通过计算分析AUC、ROCSS和可靠性等指标,评估了这2种产品对于长江上游水库群蓄水期的枯水情景的预报能力。结果表明:2种产品提前一个月判断枯水雨情的效果较好,但产品倾向过度预测枯水事件发生的可能性,在实际生产运用中需得到重视。研究成果可为基于中长期预报的长江上游水库群提前蓄水调度提供科学依据与技术支撑。

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has released seasonal GloFAS Seasonal runoff and SEAS5 precipitation ensemble forecast products in recent years.The runoff forecast of six control stations and the areal precipitation forecast of four sub-areas in the upper Yangtze River are selected.The prediction ability of the two products for dry scenario in the upper Yangtze River reservoirs impounding period are evaluated by calculating and analyzing the indicators such as AUC,ROCSS and reliability.The evaluation results show that the two products could predict the occurrence of dry scenario one month in advance,and the products tend to over-predict the possibility of dry scenario events,which needs to be considered in practice.This study can provide a scientific basis and technical support for reservoir impounding operation based on medium and long-term forecast in the upper Yangtze River basin.