摘要
为了研究"一带一路"项目风险传递机理,分析了"一带一路"水电项目建设面临的风险,构造了风险传递的反馈回路图,基于系统动力学和结构熵权法建立了以"一带一路"水电项目为背景的风险传递模型。通过对模型变量赋值,确定变量权重和函数关系,建立了定量的SD模型。结合阿根廷孔拉水电站项目案例进行仿真分析,模拟不同风险管理水平和合同再协商力度对项目风险的影响,分析不同阶段的项目风险传递的特征和影响,提出风险控制对策。研究成果使"一带一路"水电项目建设者能够应对项目风险的不确定性和动态性,有效降低风险并提高项目投资效率。
There are many risk factors in the implementation of projects in the Belt and Road initiative,and the project risk transmission is the basis and key to improving the cooperation efficiency of the Belt and Road projects.This paper analyzes the risks in the hydropower project construction and establishes a feedback loop diagram of risk transmission.Based on the system dynamics and structure entropy weight method,a quantitative system dynamics model is developed.We establish a risk transmission model for the Belt and Road hydropower projects,assign values to model variables,and determine variable weights and functional relationships.Combined with the case study of CC/LB Hydropower Station in Argentina,the impact of different risk management levels and contract renegotiation on project risk is simulated,and the characteristics and impacts of project risk transmission at different stages are analyzed.Based on the results,risk control measures are proposed.This model enables the practitioners to cope with the uncertainty and dynamics of project risks,reduce risk levels and improve project investment efficiency.
作者
何寿奎
付弘扬
HE Shoukui;FU Hongyang(School of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2020年第3期153-159,217,共8页
Yangtze River
基金
重庆市基础研究与前沿探索项目“重大工程项目多元化投资组织利益冲突机理与治理机制研究”(CSTC2018jcyjAX0005)
重庆市社会科学规划一般项目““一带一路”公共产品供给机制与风险应对研究”(2017YBGL153)
重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目“绿色公路评价标准与推进机制研究”(18SKGH049)。
关键词
风险传递
“一带一路”
系统动力学
结构熵权法
风险因素
孔拉水电站
risk transmission
the Belt and Road initiative
system dynamics
structure entropy weight method
risk factors
CC/LB Hydropower Station
