基于偏离-份额法的中国污染密集型制造业空间转移研究

The Research on Relocation of China’s Pollution-intensive Manufacturing Industry based on Shift-share Analysis

污染密集型制造业空间转移不仅受环境规制和传统区位因素影响,行业差异更是增加了其空间转移轨迹的复杂性。文章在对污染密集型制造业界定的基础上,运用偏离-份额法和地理探测器对我国2001-2016年污染密集型制造业的空间转移及其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:(1)我国污染密集型制造业空间转移总体呈现东部迁出、中部过渡、西部迁入的空间分异特征,形成了"雁行发展模式";(2)在经济地带内部,污染密集型制造业呈现由传统优势省份向环境规制水平较低的周边省份转移的趋势;(3)污染密集型制造业空间转移具有明显的行业差异化特征;(4)影响污染密集型制造业空间转移的因子影响力由大到小为:环境规制、经济外向度、创新水平、产业结构、基础设施和要素成本,各因子影响力在不同区域存在明显差异,但交互作用均呈现增强趋势。

On the one hand,relocation of pollution-intensive manufacturing industry is affected by environmental regulation and traditional locational factors. On the other hand,differences of industrial types even increase complexity of the relocation trajectory. On the basis of defining pollution-intensive manufacturing industry,the Shift-share Analysis method and Geodetector were used in this paper to analyze relocation and influencing factors of China’s pollution-intensive manufacturing industry in 2001-2016. The findings indicated that the relocation of pollution-intensive manufacturing industry in China presents spatial differential features of migration from the east,transition in the middle and moving towards the west,thus forming a "flying geese paradigm";In economic zones,pollution-intensive manufacturing industry demonstrates a tendency of shifting from traditionally dominant provinces to surrounding provinces with low environmental regulation level;The relocation of pollution-intensive manufacturing industry has distinct industrial differentiation characteristics;The factors influencing the relocation of pollution-intensive manufacturing industry ranking from strong to weak include environmental regulation,extroverted degree of economy,innovation level,industrial structure and infrastructure and factor cost. The factors are obviously different in different regions,but their interactions all show an enhancement trend.