趋势焦虑与冲突意愿:区域主导权竞争中的防御性进攻主义

Trend Anxiety and Conflict Readiness:Defensive Offensiveness in Regional Dominance Competition

区域安全复合体内部主导权竞争常常会引发大国战争。从理性角度讲,倾向于发动主导权战争的国家要么具有“趋势优势”,要么具有“实力优势”。但却无法解释为何有些国家既没有“趋势优势”,也没有“实力优势”,却依然倾向于对“实力较强且趋势占优”的国家发动主导权战争。趋势焦虑不仅可以解释传统理论中守成大国对新兴大国的防御性进攻倾向,更可以解释如果守成大国通过战略打压成功地扭转了新兴大国的崛起趋势,那么新兴大国反而可能因趋势焦虑而选择防御性进攻。避开从传统权力结构性分析路径,而通过引入战略心理学的“趋势焦虑”概念并构建防御性进攻主义的广义理论,将对区域主导权竞争中何者更具进攻性意愿有着更强的解释力和预测力。同时,传统理论认为,霸权国在区域主导权竞争中倾向于依据静态的权力结构性而扶持区域次强国,进而达到抑制权力占优方的目标。但从战略势能演变的动态性视角分析,霸权国在区域主导权竞争中并非一贯倾向对区域次强国予以支持,而是更倾向对“趋势占劣”或“战略匹配高”的地区大国予以支持,哪怕其权力尚处于优势地位。

The competition for dominance within a regional security complex often leads to wars among great powers.Viewed from a rational perspective,countries that tend to take the initiative in starting wars for dominance are equipped with either“trend advantage”or“strength advantage”.However,this argument fails to explain why some countries with neither of these two advantages are still inclined to launch wars for dominance against“more powerful and trend-dominant”countries.The findings of this study suggest that“trend anxiety”can not only explain the tendency of defensive offensiveness by the established power towards the rising power as often mentioned by traditional theories but also provide adequate explanation for the scenario in which the rising power,after its upward trajectory has been successfully reversed by the established power,may fall back on defensive offensiveness.Bypassing the traditional path of power structure analysis,this paper has introduced the concept of“trend anxiety”from strategic psychology and proceeded to construct a broad theory of defensive offensiveness.This approach will help offer more explanatory and predictive power as to which party,the established country or the rising country,will display more offensive intents in the competition for regional dominance.Meanwhile,the traditional theories contend that a hegemonic power tends to support regional sub-powers in order to achieve the goal of restraining the regional power who enjoys a competitive advantage.From the dynamic perspective concerning the evolution of strategic potential energy,the hegemonic country does not always tend to support regional sub-powers in the competition for regional dominance,but are more inclined to lend support to regional powers with“trend inferiority”or“high strategic match”,even if these powers possess certain advantages.