基于AHP的路堑护坡风险动态加权综合评估模型研究

Research on Dynamic Weighted Comprehensive Assessment Model of Cutting Slope Risk Based on AHP

为建立运营期既有铁路路堑护坡风险评估模型,在朔黄铁路(神池-黄骅港)全线病害排查结果的基础上,结合层次分析法和动态加权综合评价方法,建立路堑护坡风险动态加权综合评估模型。研究结论如下:基于朔黄铁路全线野外调查、物探和钻探结果,提出护坡病害自身严重性评价指标及评定标准;基于护坡病害对邻近线路安全的影响程度,提出护坡病害对铁路的危险性评价指标及评定标准;对护坡病害自身严重性和对铁路的危害性各评价指标进行分层和排序,采用层次分析法得到各指标权重;结合两种评价模型,运用动态加权综合评价方法,提出动态加权综合评估模型;通过一高边坡对该模型合理性进行验证,结果表明该模型可科学全面地评估运营期路堑护坡风险。

In order to establish a risk assessment model based on the results of the whole line defects detection of the Shenchi-Huanghuagang Railway for railway cutting slope protection during the operation period, the dynamic weighted comprehensive assessment model of the cutting slope protection risk is established by means of the analytic hierarchy process and the dynamic weighted comprehensive evaluation method. The conclusions of the study are as follows. Based on the field investigation, geophysical exploration and drilling results of the entire railway line of Shenchi-Huanghuagang Railway, the evaluation index and assessment criteria of slope severity are proposed. Based on the degree of influence of cutting slope protection on the safety of adjacent railways, the risk of slope protection to railway operation is proposed. Evaluation indicators and assessment criteria are put forward according to stratification and ranking of the severity of slope protection defects and the evaluation of railway hazards. Analytic hierarchy process is conducted to obtain the weights of each index. With two evaluation models and the dynamic weighted comprehensive evaluation method, a dynamic weighted comprehensive evaluation model is proposed. The rationality of the model is verified by a high cutting slope. The results show that the model can scientifically and comprehensively evaluate the risk of cutting slope protection during operation.