京津冀协同发展战略下河北省建设用地需求规模预测

Forecast of Construction Land Demand in Hebei Province under the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Strategy

在协同发展背景下,区域建设用地的增长不仅有自身发展的内生性需求,还有产业转移等对其提出的外生性需求。京津冀协同发展已成为重大国家战略,河北省作为京津冀协同发展的关键“短板”和产业转移核心承载地,亟须明确其未来建设用地的“内+外”需求规模。该文以河北省及省内11个地级市为测度单元,运用RBF神经网络模型预测2030年建设用地内生性需求规模为23012.96 km2,并通过产业转移测度模型测算京津冀协同发展对河北省提出建设用地外生性需求规模为2885.26 km2,进而预测建设用地最大需求规模为25898.22 km2,较2016年增加了4154.12 km2,年均增速明显低于2006-2016年的2.29%。研究结果可为具有类似协同发展的区域开展建设用地需求预测提供方法借鉴,并为河北省国土空间规划编制提供决策支持。

In the context of coordinated development,the growth of regional construction land has not only endogenous needs for its own development,but also exogenous demands put forward by industrial transfer.The coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has become a major national strategy,and Hebei Province,as the key"short board"and the core carrier of industrial transfer for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development,urgently needs to clarify the"internal+external"demand scale of its future construction land.This study has adopted Hebei Province and 11 prefecture-level cities as the measurement units,used the RBF neural network model to predict the endogenous demand,and estimated the exogenous demand of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development to Hebei Province through the industrial transfer measurement model.The endogenous demand for construction land in 2030 is predicted to be 23012.96 km2,while the exogenous demand for construction land is proposed to be 2885.26 km2.Thus,the maximum demand for construction land is predicted to be 25898.22 km2,an increase of 4154.12 km2 compared with 2016.The average annual growth rate is significantly lower than 2.29%for the period of 2006-2016.The predicted results are basically consistent with the construction land-use development requirements for intensive use and growth rate reduction.These research results can provide a method for the development of land use forecasting in areas with similar coordinated development,and provide decision support for the preparation of the spatial planning of Hebei Province.