中国土地财政与工业发展关系时空差异及其驱动因素研究

Study on Spatial-Temporal Differences and Driving Forces of the Relationship between Land Finance and Industrial Development in China

基于土地财政与工业发展之间相互作用的逻辑关系,利用2005-2016年全国31个省(市、区)土地财政与工业产业的相关数据,对二者耦合协调度的时空差异进行分析,并构建计量模型进一步分析耦合协调度时空差异的驱动因素,主要结论如下:1)中国土地财政与工业发展在省级尺度空间上的耦合协调度表现为由东向西递减的分布特征,而在时间上表现为升—降—升—降的“M”形演变特征;2)耦合协调度的驱动因素主要包括经济规模因素与产业结构因素,前者对于不同时间、不同地区土地财政与工业发展耦合协调度有正向影响,后者主要表现为负向影响;3)根据耦合协调度的时空差异及其驱动因素将全国31个省(市、区)划分为4种不同类型的区域,并针对各区域不同情况,对合理协调土地财政与工业发展关系提供政策建议。

Land finance plays an important role among the progress of urbanization in China.In addition,it has a close relationship with the development of industry.Based on the logical relationship between land finance and industrial development,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal differences of the coupling coordination degree between land finance and industrial development in 31 provinces of China from 2005 to 2016,and then an model was constructed to analyze the driving factors of the spatial and temporal differences of the coupling coordination degree.Finally following conclusions could be drawn:1)The coupling coordination degree of land finance and industrial development showed distributive characteristics of decreasing from east to west in provincial-level space of China,and the evolutionary characteristics of rising-falling-rising-falling in time.2)The driving factors of coupling coordination degree include economic scale and industry structure.The former had a positive impact on the coupling coordination degree of land finance and industrial development in different time and regions,while the latter showed a negative impact.3)According to the spatial and temporal differences of coupling coordination degree and its driving factors,31 provinces in China can be divided into four different types of regions.In view of the different situations in different regions,policy recommendations coordinating the relationship between land finance and industrial development can be provided.