基于修正旅游引力模型的横店影视城客源市场空间结构划分

Spatial Structure Analysis of Domestic Tourist Market Based on the Modified Gravity Model:A Case Study of Hengdian World Studios

客源市场结构划分是旅游管理决策的关键环节之一。在“互联网+旅游”背景下,引入旅游地网络关注度和交通时间两个替代指标,构建修正引力模型下的客源市场结构划分框架,并以浙江金华横店影视城为例进行分析,结果发现:1)基于网民规模的旅游地网络关注度表征客源地出游意愿,可以对潜在的旅游客源市场进行精确估计。横店影视城的省域网络关注度呈现一定的层级衰减结构(东部>中部>西部),靠近目的地(金华)且经济发展水平较高的省份网络关注度普遍较高。2)基于交通时间计算的空间阻尼系数为0.0024,其对客源市场的分布产生一定的“时空压缩”效应,未来应更加重视交通环境改善对目的地吸引力提升的积极影响。3)修正的引力模型所划分的旅游市场空间结构与横店影视城的实际抽样调查结果较为接近,Pearson相关系数为0.986,效果较优。横店影视城的客源市场具有近域指向特点,今后应注重对上海、广东、北京、天津等经济发达区域以及湖南等开通高铁省区的旅游宣传和推广。

The spatial structure of tourist market distribution is one of the vital parts of tourism management.In the background of"Internet+tourism",this paper introduces two alternative indexes of tourist destination network attention and traffic time-distance,to build the analytical framework of tourism market spatial structure based on a modified gravity model.The Hengdian World Studios is taken as an example,and the results show that:1)The network attention of tourist destinations based on the scale of Internet users representing the travel intention of tourist sources,can accurately estimate the potential tourist source markets.The provincial network attention of Hengdian World Studios shows a certain hierarchical attenuation structure(East>Central>West).Provinces close to the destination(Jinhua)with a higher level of economic development generally have a higher value of network attention.2)The spatial damping coefficient calculated based on the traffic time-distance is 0.0024,which has a certain"time-space compression"effect on the distribution of tourist market.In the future,more positive measurements should be taken on traffic environment improvement to improve the destination attraction.3)The spatial structure of the tourist market divided by the modified gravity model is close to that collected by actual sample surveys of Hengdian World Studios.The Pearson correlation coefficient is 0.986,and the effect is excellent.Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Anhui,Shanghai,Jiangxi are the main tourist markets,for potential tourist markets,Hengdian World Studios should facilitate the tourism publicity and promotion to the economically developed regions such as Shanghai,Guangdong,Beijing and Tianjin,and provincial regions with high-speed railway such as Hunan.