国家利益--石油市场的关键力量

The state interest:the super power in oil market

在国际石油市场中,供需关系发挥"无形之手"的力量影响着油价,而国家力量的干预作为"有形之手"也对石油市场发挥着重要影响力。长期以来,产油国对国际油价发挥着主导作用,消费国的影响相对有限。2016年底,欧佩克联手俄罗斯组成"减产联盟",开始联合影响石油市场。作为全球霸主的美国,继成为全球第一大产油国后,2019年又实现了石油净出口,其影响石油市场的能力显著增强。在美国、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯"三国鼎立"的石油供应格局下,油价走势大概率会处在三国共同利益区间,由此预计,后疫情时代国际油价大概率会维持在40~75美元/桶区间。

In the international oil market,the demand-supply dynamic plays as an "invisible hand" on the formation of oil price,while the intervention of state power as an "visible hand" also plays an important role in the oil market.For long run,oil producing countries has been dominating in the market while oil consuming countries has relatively limited impact on oil price trajectory.From the end of 2016,Russia and OPEC formed the "Declaration of Cooperation" in a concerted effort to stabilize the oil market.The United States,global leader,became a net oil exporter in late 2019,after marking the world’s largest oil producer and its ability to influence global oil market is increasingly remarkable.Under super power of the "Three Kingdoms",namely the United States,Saudi Arabia and Russia,the international oil price would fall largely in the range of their common interests and oil price is expect to be 40-75 dollar per barrel after the COVID-19 pandemic.