摘要
新冠疫情之后的全球经济复苏,很可能是一个缓慢而充满不确定性的过程,同时会伴随一些重要的结构性改变。"十四五"期间,全球石油需求每年的增量将明显放缓,估计为95万桶/日左右,石化产品将主导需求增长。低油价使替代能源的经济性受到考验,但是清洁化方向不会改变。全球石油市场供大于求的态势短期内仍难以改变,但如果低油价长期持续,造成上游投资不足,老油田采收率下降甚至减产,从中期看石油市场供给将趋紧。
The global economy faces a slow and uncertain recovery from COVID-19,and would accompany by some important structural changes.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,global oil demand growth,with demand growth led by petrochemicals,will slow significantly to an estimated 950,000 b/d per year.Low oil prices challenge the economics of alternative fuels but the direction of clean energy will not change.The international oil market will remain oversupply in the short term.However,the oil market will become tighter in the medium term if low oil prices continue for a long time,which would result in insufficient upstream investment,declining oil recovery and even production cuts in old oilfields.
作者
柯晓明
KE Xiaoming(Sinopec Economics&Development Research Institute)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2020年第5期27-34,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
石油市场
新冠疫情
供需
能源转型
替代能源
上游投资
oil market
COVID-19
supply and demand
energy transition
alternative fuels
upstream investment
