低油价下的国际油气并购市场及应对策略

Analysis of international oil and gas M&A market and strategies in the oil price downturn

1997-2000年,油价长期低位震荡,石油公司并购交易规模累计达5160亿美元,其中超过80%为公司交易,且单个交易规模较大,形成了一批石油巨头,并购实施效果较好。2008-2010年,油价下跌后迅速反弹,在油价长期看好的预期下,引发了石油公司对资源的大规模争夺,但是多数公司并未实现预期的价值提升。2014-2017年,油价持续低位徘徊,国际大公司纷纷进行资产组合优化,并购交易规模累计达6540亿美元,以资产交易为主,此轮并购效果有待观察。当前的低油价时期,并购市场需要时间弥合买卖双方的资产估值分歧,可能促成更加有利的买方市场。建议中国石油企业识别并购市场潜在目标,合理评估资本结构和筹资方案,提前筹划并购方案,多措并举最大化协同效应。

From 1997 to 2000,oil price fluctuated at low level for quite a long time.The scale of oil company mergers and acquisitions reached US $516 billion,of which more than 80% are corporate transactions.Besides,the size of a single transaction was relatively large and a number of oil majors emerged with good implementation effect of M&A.From 2008 to 2010,oil price rebounded rapidly after its falling down,leading to large-scale competition for resources by oil companies in the expectation of long-term oil prices.However,most companies had not achieved their expected value creation.From 2014 to 2017,oil prices remained low and major oil companies focused on portfolio optimization during long-time oil downturn,with a total M&A transaction size of US $654 billion,which is dominated by asset transactions.The effect of this round of M&A remains to be seen.In the current period of the low oil price,the M&A market needs time to bridge the divergence of asset valuations between buyers and sellers,which may lead to a more favorable buyers’ market.The paper recommends that Chinese oil companies should identify potential targets in the M&A market,reasonably evaluate the capital structure and financing scheme,make the M&A plans in advance,and implement multiple measures to maximize synergies.