基于结构方程模型的足球比赛制胜因子分析研究——以2018年俄罗斯世界杯为例

Analysis of Winning Factors in Football Matches Based on Structural Equation Model:A Case Study of 2018 World Cup in Russia

目的为了解俄罗斯世界杯足球比赛制胜规律,挖掘球队取胜的经验,为我国足球运动的发展提供参考依据。方法运用文献资料法、因子分析法以及结构方程模型等研究方法,对参加2018俄罗斯世界杯32支参赛队伍在64场128队次比赛中的16项技术统计指标进行研究分析。结果俄罗斯世界杯制胜因子主要有制造得分机会因子、犯规因子、防守控球因子、进攻效率因子4个公共因子;模型经过拟合修正,其卡方自由度比值为1.630,渐进残差均方和平方根(RMSEA)值为0.057,各拟合指标AGFI、GFI值以及各增值配适度NFI、CFI值均大于0.90,模型拟合度理想;模型构建出了制造得分机会、犯规、防守控球、进攻效率4个潜在变量之间的关系,且其制造得分机会对犯规、制造得分机会对防守控球、制造得分机会对进攻效率、犯规对防守控球、犯规对进攻效率、防守控球对进攻效率之间的效果值依次为-0.39、-0.69、0.1、0.26、0.1、0.32。结论通过对比赛的控制获得更多的射门机会,减少黄牌数,增加射门次数,提高射正率更有利于取得进球;提高球队进攻与防守的整体积极性,追求全攻全守型的比赛理念;攻防策略上,耐心的制造得分机会同时注重进攻效率,犯规与防守控球相结合延缓对方进攻。

Objective To understand the rules of winning the World Cup in Russia,tap the team's winning experience,and provide a reference for the development of China's football.Methods By using the research methods of literature,factor analysis and structural equation model,the 16 technical statistics indicators of 32 participating teams in the 2018 World Cup in Russia in 64 games and 128 teams were analyzed.Results The winning factors of Russia's world cup mainly included 4 public factors,manufacturing chance factor,foul factor,defensive possession factor,and offensive efficiency factor.The model was fitted and modified,and its chi-square degree of freedom ratio is 1.630,and the RMSEA of the progressive residual error is 0.057,each fitting index AGFI,GFI value,and each value-added moderation NFI,CFI value were greater than 0.90,the model fits well.The model constructs the relationship among the 4 potential variables of scoring opportunities,fouls,defensive possession and offensive efficiency.And the effect values of making scoring opportunity to foul,making scoring opportunity to defensive control,making scoring opportunity to offensive efficiency,foul to defensive control,foul to offensive efficiency,defensive control to offensive efficiency were-0.39,-0.69,0.1,0.26,0.1,0.32 in turn.Conclusion Through the control of the game to get more shooting opportunities,reduce the number of yellow cards,increase the number of shots,improve the shooting rate is more conducive to scoring goals.Improving the overall enthusiasm of the team's offensive and defensive,and pursue the concept of all-around attack.On the offensive and defensive strategy,it should patiently create scoring opportunities and pay attention to offensive efficiency.