基于多元线性回归模型的广东省卫生总费用的影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Total Expenditure on Health in Guangdong Province Based on Stepwise Regression

目的:研究影响广东省卫生总费用的主要因素,为控制广东省卫生费用的增长提供建议。方法:利用描述性统计,分析2000-2017年广东省卫生总费用筹资总量的变化趋势;基于相关性分析以及多元线性回归模型进行影响因素分析。结果:模型分析发现,老龄化、医疗机构数与广东省卫生总费用存在线性相关关系,且这两个影响因素对于卫生总费用均呈正相关变化。老龄化每增长1%的比率,卫生总费用增长508.849亿元;医疗机构数每增长1个,卫生总费用增加0.055亿元。结论:广东省应关注卫生投入与经济的协调发展,积极发展"互联网+医疗健康",发展老年医疗护理服务,拓展商业保险老年人健康险种,进一步完善医疗保障制度和社会保障体系;优化医疗卫生资源配置,关注医疗机构质量服务,控制卫生费用的合理增长。

Objective:To study the main factors affecting the total expenditure on health in Guangdong province and provide suggestions for controlling the reasonable growth of health expenditure.Methods:Using descriptive statistics to analyze the change trend of total expenditure on health financing in Guangdong province from 2000 to 2017,based on correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression model to analyze the influencing factors.Results:It was found that there was a linear correlation between aging and the number of medical institutions and the total expenditure on health in Guangdong province by model analysis,and these two influencing factors had a positive correlation change in the total expenditure on health.For every 1%increase in the population aging,the total expenditure on health would increase by 50.8849 billion yuan,and for every increase in the number of medical institutions,the total expenditure on health will increase by 0.0055 billion yuan.Conclusion:Guangdong province should pay attention to the coordinated development of health investment and economy,actively develop"Internet+Medical Health"and the medical care service for the elderly,expand commercial health insurance coverage for the elderly and further improve the medical security system and social security system,optimize the allocation of medical and health resources,pay attention to the quality of medical services and other measures to control the reasonable growth of health expenditure.