右翼民粹主义政党在西欧兴起的原因分析——基于因果机制的解释

On the Rise of Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe--An Explanation Based on Causal Mechanisms

为什么西欧右翼民粹主义政党能在重重危机中频频获利,而左翼民粹主义政党和其他非主流政党的表现却逊色得多?为什么西欧主流政党和主流舆论难以压制右翼民粹主义的增长?本文认为,首先,政治、经济危机触发了西欧各国社会结构、国家认同和共享信念的深刻分裂,这种分裂严重破坏了自由民主的同质性基础。右翼民粹主义是最契合当前这种分裂情况的意识形态,因此成为不少民众心目中的替代方案,而民族主义内涵不足的左翼民粹主义的发展则明显受限。其次,西欧的政党体制本身就有利于非主流政党的生存,而当代右翼民粹主义政党则充分掌握了各种煽动性议题的话语权。最后,主流政党(尤其是主流右翼政党)在应对右翼民粹主义时始终处于两难境地,无法形成持续有效的压制。西欧右翼民粹主义政党的灵活性和多样性则使其在政治变迁中具有充分的韧性。因此,除非西欧社会的分裂情况得到根本扭转,或主流政党真正夺回相关议题的话语权,右翼民粹主义政党仍将长期活跃。在此基础上,笔者探讨了当代世界资本主义与自由民主的内在矛盾及其对中国政治发展的启示。

Why have right-wing populist parties been able to constantly profit from crises in Western Europe,while left-wing populist parties and other non-mainstream parties have fared much less well?Why is it so hard for mainstream parties and public opinion in Western Europe to suppress the growth of right-wing populism?First of all,the political and economic crisis triggered the deep division of social structure,national identity and shared beliefs in western European countries,which seriously damaged the homogeneous foundation of liberal democracy.Right-wing populism is the most suitable ideology for the current situation,so it has become an alternative in the minds of many people,while the development of left-wing populism without adequate nationalist connotation always hits limits.Secondly,the party system in Western Europe itself is conducive to the survival of non-mainstream parties,while contemporary right-wing populist parties have successfully taken advantage of all kinds of inflammatory issues.Finally,mainstream parties,especially those on the right,are always in a quandary when it comes to right-wing populism,unable to generate sustained and effective repression.The flexibility and diversity of right-wing populist parties in Western Europe make them extremely resilient in political changes.So unless social divisions are fundamentally reversed,or mainstream parties really regain their dominance on agenda-setting,right-wing populist parties may well survive and thrive.On this basis,the author discusses the internal contradiction between capitalism and liberal democracy in the contemporary world and its enlightenment to the political development of China.