摘要
化学灾害发生后,个体风险感知水平和客观风险水平之间的差距会进一步影响其行为倾向和后续决策,运用系统动力学软件Vensim构建模型来研究二者之间差值的拟合过程,可以更为清晰的看出风险地传播过程,特别是化学事故所引发的舆情风险和污染风险的传播情况,进而得出控制风险的几个关键时间点以及相关措施。
After the occurrence of chemical disasters,the gap between individual risk perception level and objective risk level will further affect their behavior tendency and follow-up decision.Using the system dynamics software Vensim to build a model to study the fitting process of the difference between the two,we can see the spread process of risk more clearly,especially the spread of public opinion risk and pollution risk caused by chemical accidents.Next,several key time points and related measures to control the risk are obtained.
作者
王中邮
张春颜
Wang Zhongyou;Zhang Chunyan(College of Management,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300387,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第9期163-169,共7页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家社会科学青年基金项目“情景分析视角下重大灾害引发社会危机的机制和防控研究”(16CSH038)。
关键词
系统动力学
仿真建模
风险感知
化学灾害
舆情
system dynamics
simulation modeling
risk perception
chemical disaster
public sentiment
