新农保政策对农村居民消费的影响评估

Evaluation of the Impact of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance Policy on Rural Residents’ Consumption

基于2010-2012年和2010-2018年CFPS两组面板数据,通过PSM-DID消除新型农村社会基本养老保险政策的"自选择效应"和内生性问题,对新农保政策可能带来的农村居民消费方面的影响进行评估。研究结果表明,新农保政策对于农村居民消费的促进效应主要体现在短期,且这种短期的消费促进效应主要表现在60周岁及以上的农村居民样本中。从消费结构来看,新农保政策主要促进了农村居民的食品消费、衣着消费以及日常消费等三类基本生活消费。同时,新农保政策对农村居民消费的影响还存在着区域异质性,其中对西部欠发达地区的消费促进效应显著,而随着区域经济发展水平逐渐提高促进效应逐渐减弱。

Based on the two groups of panel data of CFPS in 2010-2012 and 2010-2018, this paper first eliminates the"self-selection effect"and the endogenous problem of the new rural social basic pension insurance policy through PSM-DID, then it conducts an assessment of the impact that may brought about by the new rural social pension insurance policies on the consumption of the rural residents. The research results show that the facilitating effect of the new rural social pension insurance policy on rural residents’ consumption is mainly reflected in the short-term, and this short-term consumption promotion effect is mainly manifested in the samples of rural residents aged 60 and above. From the perspective of consumption structure, the new rural social pension insurance policy has mainly promoted the three types of basic living consumption, i.e., the rural residents’ food consumption, clothing consumption, and daily consumption. At the same time, there still exists some regional heterogeneity in the impact of the new rural social pension insurance policy on rural residents’ consumption, of which, the promoting effect on the consumption in the western underdeveloped areas is significant, but this promotion effect will be gradually weakened as the regional economic development level gradually increases.