前景理论下电商物流二次订购策略研究

Research on Second Order Strategy of E-commerce Logistics Based on Prospect Theory

为了解决需求期较长商品的订购问题,在前景理论的框架下,文章构建了风险共担的两阶段订购报童模型。分析零售商的最优决策及相应性质,同时考虑参考点水平、损失厌恶程度、风险分担比例等因素对零售商“决策偏差”的影响,最后通过算例分析验证研究结果。研究表明,当零售商的参考点水平和风险厌恶水平较低时,前景理论报童模型最优订购量高于经典报童模型的最优订购量,物流服务商可通过调整两阶段价格差异及风险分担比例,激励零售商调整订购策略。

In order to solve the problem of ordering goods with a long demand period,in the framework of prospect theory,this paper constructs a two-stage ordering newsboy model with risk sharing.Analyze the retailer's optimal decision and corresponding properties,and consider the impact of factors such as reference point level,loss aversion,and risk sharing ratio on the retailer's“decision bias”,and finally verify the research results through example analysis.Research shows that when the retailer's reference point level and risk aversion level are low,the optimal order quantity of the prospective newsboy model is higher than that of the classic newsboy model.The logistics service provider can adjust the two-stage price difference and risk sharing ratios to motivate retailers to adjust their ordering strategies.