CPTPP经济效应的量化模拟及政策启示

Economic Effects of CPTPP and Policy Implications

文章构建一个多国的全球一般均衡数值模型系统,并在模型中引入内生性贸易不平衡以及贸易成本结构,量化模拟了CPTPP的经济效应、中国加入的影响以及协定成员扩容的影响。模拟结果发现,CPTPP的实施不会损害中国的经济利益,相反会对中国的GDP、进出口贸易、就业、社会福利产生小幅度的正向作用;同时对CPTPP的成员国有显著的正向效应,对多数非成员国经济存在负向冲击。如果中国加入CPTPP,中国与CPTPP成员国的受益将进一步增加。CPTPP的现有扩容计划对协定成员存在正效应但不利于非成员国,而对中国的影响不大。

This paper sets a global general equilibrium numerical model with endogenous trade imbalances involving 29 economies, which quantifies the economic effects of CPTPP, the impact of China’s participation, and the impact of agreement member expansion. The simulation results show that the implementation of CPTPP will not harm China’s economic interests, but will have a small positive effect on China’s GDP, import and export, manufacturing employment, and social welfare. At the same time, it has a significant positive impact on CPTPP’s member countries. The effect has a negative impact on the economies of most non-member countries. If China joins CPTPP, the benefits of China and CPTPP members will increase further.