印度国内进口贸易增长模式与演化研究:1995-2017年

Study on the Growth Pattern and Evolution of India’s Import Trade from 1995 to 2017

文章利用BACI数据库5000多种商品的HS六位码国际贸易数据,实证分析了1995-2017年印度进口市场与贸易增长情况,在此基础上用非参数技术研究其动态演化特征。研究结果表明:印度国内进口市场以资源性产品和中间零部件商品需求为主,进口贸易伙伴主要有中日韩、美国和欧盟等资本技术密集型输出国以及中东、澳大利亚和东盟等资源密集型输出国。总体上,印度国内进口增长主要来源于扩展边际,而中国对印度出口迅速增加的主要来源是数量边际;莫迪执政以来,数量边际和扩展边际共同构成印度国内进口增长的源泉,而中国对印度出口增长贡献最大的是扩展边际,数量边际和价格边际贡献次之。

Based on the international trade data of HS six digit code which has more than 5000 commodity varieties in BACI database, this paper analyzes the import market and trade growth of India in 1995-2017, and then studies its dynamic evolution with non-parametric technology. The results show that India’s import market is dominated by demands for resource-based products and intermediate parts, and its main import partners are capital technology intensive exporting countries such as China,Japan,South Korea, the United States and the European Union, and resource intensive exporting countries such as the Middle East, Australia and ASEAN. On the whole, India’s import growth is mainly from the expansion margin, while India’s import from China is mainly from the quantity margin. Since Modi came into power, the quantity margin and the expansion margin together constitute the source of India’s import growth, while the expansion margin contributes the most to India’s import growth from China, followed by the quantity margin and the price margin.