基于随机Petri网的突发事件信息演化模型

Evolving Model of Information Towards Emergencies Based on Stochastic Petri Net

突发事件爆发后通常会引发事件信息的演化现象,而信息演化可能导致的负面舆情危机严重影响社会生活秩序,如何准确把握突发事件信息的演化规律是社会发展新形势下公共事务风险治理的重要内容。首先采用案例分析和结构化描述方法提取突发事件信息演化现象的内外部属性,并提出其演化系统。进而,构建该系统的随机Petri网模型及其同构的马尔可夫链。最后,通过情景仿真研究系统的均衡状态变动规律及其调控问题。研究过程中,提出突发事件信息演化现象的结构化描述、演化系统及不同演化状态,得出系统均衡状态变动规律及其调控机制。在此基础上,指出未来应考虑带有碰撞和耦合机制的多种信息演化规律及其调控问题。

The evolvement of information towards emergencies(ITE) is usually triggered by emergences, and the negative public opinion crisis caused probably by the evolvement of ITE has a serious impact on the order in social life. Thus how to accurately grasp the evolving law of ITE is an important part of risk governance for public affairs under new situations of social development. However, few of the existing studies consider the problems of structured description and equilibrium changing law for the evolvement of ITE, and pay attention to modelling the evolvement process of ITE and its regulation mechanism from the perspective of system. Therefore, the internal and external attributes of the evolvement of ITE are first extracted by case analysis and structured description method. Then, an evolving system is designed according to the time sequence relationships of attributes. Further, a stochastic Petri net model of the system and its isomorphic Markov chain are constructed respectively. Finally, taking the evolvement of ITE in 2009 source blockage incident of Limin radiation factory in Qi county of Henan province as an example, some experiments of scenario simulation are carried out to study the system equilibrium changes and its regulation. The studies propose the structured description, evolving system and different evolving states of the evolvement of ITE, and obtain the changing law of system equilibrium and its regulation mechanism. The results not only can provide normative guidance for the equilibrium study of complex information evolving process, but also can help to identify the impact of regulation measures on the probability of information evolves to some negative states(negative public opinion, rumors and secondary events, etc.). On such basis, the problems of evolving law and its regulation for multiple ITE with collision and coupling mechanism are suggested to be taken into account in future studies.