新冠肺炎疫情和价格战叠加影响下的国际原油市场走势

International oil market trend under the impact of COVID-19 and price war

关键提示尽管中国的原油需求会在2020年第2季度出现反弹,但欧美国家的需求会大幅下滑,而且全球经济衰退会影响中国的出口需求,拖累中国的经济和原油需求复苏。沙特和俄罗斯的价格战将持续一段时间,全球原油供给将会明显增加,在全球需求明显萎缩的背景下,原油价格将持续处于低位,对美国页岩油等生产成本较高的油气企业构成重大的负面影响,不利于未来原油产能的稳定。

While China’s oil demand will rebound in the second quarter of 2020,demand from the US and Europe will fall sharply,and the global recession will affect China’s export demand,dragging down the recovery of China’s economy and oil demand.The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue for a period of time,and the global crude oil supply will increase significantly.In the context of the obvious contraction of global demand,the crude oil price will remain low,which will have a significant negative impact on the oil and gas companies with high production costs such as shale oil in the United States,and is not conducive to the stability of future crude oil production capacity.The price war is not in the interests of the big three suppliers,Saudi Arabia,Russia and the US,which are expected to return to the negotiating table under US mediation,and which will support oil prices.