从中国的海运地位看新冠肺炎疫情的影响

Coronavirus: putting China’s maritime role in context

关键提示较之2003年,如今的中国在全球经济、海运贸易和造船领域发挥着越来越重要的作用,疫情对航运业的影响似乎更为显著。新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济、海运贸易以及造船活动均造成了严重影响。虽然目前疫情的发展态势仍不明朗,任何对潜在影响的分析或因疫情的变化而失效,但是通过对比中国当前与2003年"非典"时期在全球航运业中的地位变化,有助我们更清晰地了解此次疫情对行业的影响。

The Covid-19 outbreak in China has caused significant disruption to the Chinese economy,seaborne trade flows and activity at Chinese shipyards in recent weeks.The situation remains fluid and any analysis of the potential impacts can be quickly superseded by events,but with numerous comparisons being made to the SARS outbreak in 2003,how has China’s role in the shipping industry evolved since then?Overall,many parts of the maritime network have been affected by the recent outbreak.Estimating the potential impact of the Covid-19 outbreak is difficult given uncertainty over the duration of disruption and extent of impacts elsewhere,but an average of initial economists’estimates suggests that China’s GDP growth could be impacted by 0.5%in full year 2020.With China significantly more prominent,the impact on the global economy could reach 0.2-0.3%,although many forecasters have highlighted worse scenarios.With China now accounting for a much greater role in the global economy,seaborne trade and shipyard activity than in 2003,and with the Chinese economy at a different stage of the development cycle,there seems clear potential for a more serious impact on the shipping industry than before.