绿色创新与经济开放的协同发展度评价及动态演化研究

Evaluation and dynamic evolution of cooperative development degree of green innovation and economic openness

基于2004—2017年30个省级地区的面板数据,采用灰色关联理论和TOPSIS模型改进的协同距离模型对绿色创新与经济开放的协同发展度进行评价,并利用非参数核密度估计及重心理论探讨绿色创新与经济开放协同发展的动态演化规律。结果表明:绿色创新与经济开放的协同发展度呈增长状态,但地区差异显著,发达地区协同发展度高于欠发达地区。从演化规律来看,协同发展度随时间演进波动上升。在空间上呈现出“东强西弱”的非均衡演化趋势,部分地区存在严重的极化现象。从动态演化特征来看,协同发展度由原来的东西差异转变为南北差异。基于动态演化规律可以预测,协同发展水平的横向差异会逐渐缩小,纵向差异暂时不会发生明显变化。

Based on the panel data of 30 provincial regions in 2004—2017,this paper uses the grey correlation theory and the improved collaborative distance model of TOPSIS model to evaluate the collaborative development degree of green innovation and economic opening,and uses the nonparametric kernel density estimation and the center of gravity theory to explore the dynamic evolution law of the collaborative development of green innovation and economic opening.The results show that the collaborative development degree of green innovation and economic opening is increasing,but there are significant regional differences.The collaborative development degree of developed areas is higher than that of less developed areas.From the perspective of evolution law,the degree of collaborative development fluctuates with time.In space,the trend of non-equilibrium evolution is“strong in the East and weak in the west”,and serious polarization phenomenon exists in some areas.From the perspective of dynamic evolution,the degree of collaborative development changes from the original East-West difference to the North-South difference.Based on the law of dynamic evolution,it can be predicted that the horizontal difference in the level of collaborative development will gradually narrow,while the vertical difference will not change significantly for the time being.