土地利用碳排放与GDP含金量的脱钩关系及驱动因素

Decoupling and Driving Factors Related Analysis between the Carbon Emissions of Different Land Use Types and GDP Gold Content

实现经济持续稳定增长的同时保证能耗减少、土地利用碳排放降低对推动减排增汇、绿色可持续生态文明建设具有重要作用。以甘肃省为研究对象,分别估算地区2000—2017年土地利用碳排放及GDP含金量,借助OECD脱钩模型,对土地利用碳排放与经济发展的脱钩关系进行量化,采用灰色关联分析对影响脱钩关系的因素进行识别与检验。结果表明:①2000—2017年甘肃省土地利用碳排放整体递增,建设用地产生的间接碳排放极强于直接碳吸收的削弱作用,在地区碳排放中占主导地位。②甘肃省GDP含金量总体稳定但相对较低,平均含金量42.96%。③甘肃省土地利用碳排放与GDP含金量前期存在未脱钩关系,后期脱钩趋势明显,地区土地利用正朝着低碳有效方向迈进。④城镇化水平、能源消费结构、总人口及第三产业比重在诸多影响因素中与脱钩关系关联最密切。

With promoting sustained and steady economic growth,ensuring the reduction in both energy consumption and carbon emissions from land use will play an important role in making emission mitigation and sink enhancement,and building green sustainable ecological civilization.The paper,taking Gansu Province as the research object,quantitatively studies the decoupling relationship between land use carbon emissions and economic development levels,based on the estimation of regional carbon emissions and gold content of GDP from 2000 to 2017 and using the OECD decoupling analysis model.Meanwhile the gray correlation analysis was used to identify the factors that influence the decoupling relationship.The results show as following:①From 2000 to 2017,the carbon emissions from land use in Gansu Province increased year by year.The indirect carbon emissions from construction land use are the main sources of carbon emissions being extremely strong than those from direct carbon sinks;②The analysis of GDP gold content shows that the GDP gold content is generally stable but relatively low,with an average gold level of 42.96%;③The result of decoupling shows that there is a long-term un-decoupling relationship between land-use carbon emissions and GDP gold content in Gansu Province,but there has been a certain trend of decoupling,indicating that regional land use is moving toward low-carbon and effective development.④The analysis of driving factors shows that urbanization level,energy consumption structure,total population as well as the proportion of the tertiary industry are the most closely related to the decoupling relationship among the influential factors.