中国建筑业碳强度变动及其驱动因素研究

On the Change of Carbon Intensity of China s Construction Industry and Its Driving Factors

为探讨建筑业碳强度历史演变的驱动因素,在生产理论视角下,将生产分解法(PDA)与指数分解法(IDA)进行系统结合,对建筑业碳强度进行多因素分解,并进一步对其变化的因素影响效应作归因分析,以量化内地30个省(自治区、直辖市)对分解因素影响效应的贡献。研究表明:2000—2015年,建筑业碳强度呈波动下降的趋势,年均降幅为5.09%,且具有明显的区域差异性;潜在能源强度是建筑业碳强度下降的主导因素,累计影响效应为-40.2%,其次为技术进步和能源碳强度因素,而产出格局和技术效率的影响相对较小;潜在能源强度效应由山西、湖北和陕西等中部地区省份主导,技术进步和能源碳强度效应由浙江、江苏等东部地区省份主导。

In order to explore and discuss the driving factors of historical evolution of carbon intensity of construction industry under production theory,this paper availed of the systematic combination of PDA and IDA to disintegrate the carbon intensity of construction industry into multiple factors.Based on that,this paper can quantify the contribution by 30 provinces in the Mainland(autonomous regions and municipalities)on the effect of decomposition factors with an attribution analysis on the effect of its changing factors.The results show:From 2000 to 2015,there was a declining trend with an average annual decrease of 5.09%in the carbon intensity of the construction industry,and it showed distinct differences among regions;As the main factor resulting into the decline of carbon intensity of the construction industry,the cumulative effect of potential energy intensity is-402%,followed by the factor of technological progress and energy carbon intensity,while the impact of output patterns and technical efficiency is relatively small;Potential energy intensity effects prevail in provinces in central regions such as Shanxi,Hubei and Shaanxi,while technological progress and energy carbon intensity effects are dominated by provinces in eastern regions such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu.