2000-2016年甘肃省水资源-能源-粮食耦合协调特征研究

Characteristic of the coupling and coordination of water-energy-food of Gansu Province during 2000-2016

以甘肃省为研究对象,构建水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统的评价指标,运用耦合协调模型对甘肃省2000-2016年W-E-F系统的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明:甘肃省W-E-F系统的综合评价指数整体呈现显"N"型变化趋势,水资源系统评价指数的发展趋势变化幅度较大,对W-E-F的综合评价指数的贡献最大;甘肃省W-E-F系统耦合度处于0.21~0.32,变化波动幅度较小且基本上保持平稳状态,处于低水平耦合阶段和颉颃阶段,耦合协调度处于0.27~0.42,其耦合协调类型大多为失调衰退型,耦合度和耦合协调度存在区域差异;不同因素在不同区域对W-E-F系统影响的方向和程度不同,其中常住人口、人均耕地面积、有效灌溉面积与W-E-F协调度的变化是同向,城镇化与W-E-F协调度变化既有正向又有负向的影响,而地区GDP对W-E-F系统的影响最不显著。

Taking Gansu Province as the research object,the evaluation index system of water-energy-food(W-E-F)system was established,and the coupling-coordination model was used to study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of W-E-F system in Gansu Province during 2000-2016.The result showed that:the comprehensive evaluation index of the W-E-F system in Gansu Province showed a"N"shaped variaton trend,in which the development trend of the water resources system evaluation index changed greatly,which contributed most to the comprehensive evaluation index of the W-E-F.When the coupling degree of the W-E-F system was in the range of 0.21-0.32 in Gansu Province,the fluctuation range of variation was small and basically maintained a stable state.This indicates that the W-E-F system is in a low-level coupling and antagonistic stage.Whereas the coupling coordination degree of the W-E-F system was in the range of 0.21-0.42,the coupling coordination types were mostly disorder recession types,the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree differed between regions.Different factors have different directions and degrees of influence on different regions.The change of the resident population,per capita cultivated land area,effective irrigation area are consistent with the variation of the coordination degree of W-E-F system,while the urbanization and the coordination degree have both positive and negative effects,but regional GDP has no significant effect on W-E-F coordination.