摘要
以甘肃省为研究对象,构建水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统的评价指标,运用耦合协调模型对甘肃省2000-2016年W-E-F系统的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明:甘肃省W-E-F系统的综合评价指数整体呈现显"N"型变化趋势,水资源系统评价指数的发展趋势变化幅度较大,对W-E-F的综合评价指数的贡献最大;甘肃省W-E-F系统耦合度处于0.21~0.32,变化波动幅度较小且基本上保持平稳状态,处于低水平耦合阶段和颉颃阶段,耦合协调度处于0.27~0.42,其耦合协调类型大多为失调衰退型,耦合度和耦合协调度存在区域差异;不同因素在不同区域对W-E-F系统影响的方向和程度不同,其中常住人口、人均耕地面积、有效灌溉面积与W-E-F协调度的变化是同向,城镇化与W-E-F协调度变化既有正向又有负向的影响,而地区GDP对W-E-F系统的影响最不显著。
Taking Gansu Province as the research object,the evaluation index system of water-energy-food(W-E-F)system was established,and the coupling-coordination model was used to study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of W-E-F system in Gansu Province during 2000-2016.The result showed that:the comprehensive evaluation index of the W-E-F system in Gansu Province showed a"N"shaped variaton trend,in which the development trend of the water resources system evaluation index changed greatly,which contributed most to the comprehensive evaluation index of the W-E-F.When the coupling degree of the W-E-F system was in the range of 0.21-0.32 in Gansu Province,the fluctuation range of variation was small and basically maintained a stable state.This indicates that the W-E-F system is in a low-level coupling and antagonistic stage.Whereas the coupling coordination degree of the W-E-F system was in the range of 0.21-0.42,the coupling coordination types were mostly disorder recession types,the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree differed between regions.Different factors have different directions and degrees of influence on different regions.The change of the resident population,per capita cultivated land area,effective irrigation area are consistent with the variation of the coordination degree of W-E-F system,while the urbanization and the coordination degree have both positive and negative effects,but regional GDP has no significant effect on W-E-F coordination.
作者
党锐
张军
周冬梅
刘洋
马靖靖
朱小燕
马静
DANG Rui;ZHANG Jun;ZHOU Dongmei;LIU Yang;MA Jingjing;ZHU Xiaoyan;MA Jing(School of Management,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Research Center for Water-saving Agriculture in Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
2020年第1期115-123,共9页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
甘肃农业大学科技创新基金-青年导师扶持基金项目(GAU-QDFC-2018-17)
学科建设基金项目(GAU-XKJS-2018-202、GAU-XKJS-2018-203)
国家自然科学基金项目(71563001)。