多健康状态老年人长期护理需求分析预测--以浙江省为例

Analysis and Prediction of Long-term Care Needs of the Aging Population with Different Health Status--Taking Zhejiang as an Example

2019年政府工作报告中对老年人口的照护工作做出了明确部署:"改革完善医养结合政策,扩大长期护理保险制度试点,让老年人拥有幸福的晚年,后来人就有可期的未来。"针对目前浙江省面临的老龄化现状以及老年人日趋严重的晚年失能情况,本文对浙江建立长护保险制度进行了探索。基于对2015年该省1%人口抽样调查数据的挖掘,文章对浙江人口老龄化的多健康状态进行分析,在此基础上得出未来长期照护需求,并在对未来长期照护成本进行预测的同时设计了相应缴费方案。

According to the deployment of elderly care services in the 2019 report on the work of the government, "We will reform and refine policies for integrating medical and elderly care services, and extend trials for long-term care insurance to cover more areas. Only when the elderly live happily can the young have a future to look forward to". In view of the current situation of aging and the increasingly serious disability of the elderly in Zhejiang, this paper explores the establishment of long-term care insurance system. Based on the data mining and analysis of the sample survey of 1% population in Zhejiang in 2015, this paper analyzes the multi-health status of the aging population, and on this basis, obtains the future long-term care demand, so as to predict the future long-term care cost and design the corresponding payment scheme and ensure the future life of the disabled elderly without putting too much pressure on the local government.