北方地区小麦蚜虫气象适宜度预报模型构建

Construction of Forecasting Model of Meteorological Suitability for Wheat Aphids in the Northern China

根据1958-2015年我国北方地区8个主产省(市)小麦蚜虫分省发生面积和发生程度资料、1958-2015年601个气象站点相应逐日气象资料和农业气象站小麦发育期资料,采用相关分析、主成分分析和逐步回归等方法,并利用相关系数法进行因子普查,结合小麦蚜虫适宜生理气象指标和华北、黄淮小麦生育期规律,筛选影响小麦蚜虫年发生程度的关键气象因子,构建分区域的小麦蚜虫气象适宜度预报模型,并将气象适宜度指数划分为非常适宜、适宜、较适宜、不适宜4个等级,以反映气象条件对小麦蚜虫发生发展的适宜程度。结果表明:筛选出影响华北小麦蚜虫年发生程度的8个关键气象因子,影响黄淮小麦蚜虫年发生程度的6个关键气象因子。建立的华北、黄淮模型回代检验等级准确率分别为91.2%,93.1%,2016-2018年3年外推预报平均准确率均在75%以上;利用黄淮模型反演苏皖两省2016-2018年小麦蚜虫发生等级、异地检验3年预报效果均较理想。模型适用于从气象角度对华北、黄淮及江淮地区小麦蚜虫发生等级进行监测和预报。

The forecasting and early warning technology of meteorological suitability of wheat aphids in the main growing areas can provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and high yield.Based on data of the occurrence area of wheat aphids,winter wheat growth period and daily meteorological data at 601 observation stations from 1958 to 2015 in 8 main wheat production provinces of the northern China,relationships between surface meteorological factors and the occurrence area of wheat aphids for every province in North China and Huanghuai Area are fully analyzed using methods of correlation analysis,principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis in various time-periods from last December to 10 June.Results indicate that the key meteorological factors which affect the occurrence area of wheat aphids in North China are average air temperature of last winter and in the first ten days of April,temperature-precipitation coefficients and the number of days with maximum air temperature(no less than 25℃)in March,sunshine hours in the third ten days in March,the number of days with daily maximum air temperature(no less than 28℃)in the third ten days of April,the number of heavy rain days(no less than 25 mm)in April,the number of days with relative air humidity between 40%and 80%in the first ten days in May.The key meteorological factors which affect the occurrence area of wheat aphids in Huanghuai Area are average air temperature of last winter and in March,precipitation in the third ten days of January,the number of days with relative air humidity(more than 80%)in the first ten days in March,temperature-precipitation coefficients in April,the number of rainless days in the third ten days in April.The meteorological suitability forecasting models of wheat aphids are established based on the normalized key meteorological factors in North China and Huanghuai Area.Hindcast validation results show that the forecasting accuracy for meteorological suitability models is 91.2%,93.1%in North China and Huanghuai Area.The accuracy of extrapolation forecasting in 2016-2018 is higher than 75%in the former two areas respectively.The average accuracy of extrapolation forecasting from 2016 to 2018 is 100%in Anhui and Jiangsu using the meteorological suitability forecasting model in Huanghuai Area.Models can be put into operational application in Huang-Huai-Hai region of China.