人工智能会加剧资本主义失业风险吗——基于政治经济学视角的分析

Will AI Increase the Unemployment Risk of Capitalism?--An Analysis from the Perspective of Political Economy

人工智能的发展再次激起了人们对"技术性失业"的担忧。工业革命以来,关于"技术性失业"的争论一直持续不断,争论的焦点在于"就业补偿机制"是否存在。本文在马克思扩大再生产模型的基础上构建了一个扩展的两大部类模型分析人工智能对就业的影响。研究发现,人工智能既可以创造就业岗位,也可能破坏就业岗位,就业数量变化取决于创造效应和破坏效应的相对大小。人工智能冲击范围广,且有助于克服"自动化讽刺",使得就业创造效应减弱的同时就业破坏效应不断增强。而且人工智能会导致就业结构"T"型分化,呈现高端化趋势。人工智能带来的就业数量和就业结构变化均会加剧失业风险。来自欧美发达国家的经验数据验证了本文模型预测的正确性。在资本主义条件下,不加限制地运用人工智能,一方面会导致失业增加,另一方面也将为实现人类"全面而自由的发展"准备生产力条件。

The development of artificial intelligence arouses people’s worry about"technical unemployment"again.Since the industrial revolution,the debate about"technical unemployment"has been continuous,the focus of which is whether the"employment compensation mechanism"exists.Based on Marx’s extended reproduction model,this paper constructs an extended two categories model to analyze the impact of AI on employment.It is found that AI can not only create jobs,but also destroy jobs.The change of employment quantity depends on the relative size of creation effect and destruction effect.AI has a wide range of impacts,and it helps to overcome the"automation Satire",which will reduce the effect of employment creation and enhance the destructive effect of employment.And AI will lead to the"T"type differentiation of employment structure,showing a high-end trend.The changes of employment quantity and employment structure brought by AI will aggravate the unemployment risk.The empirical data from developed countries in Europe and the United States verify the correctness of the model.Under capitalist conditions,the unrestricted use of AI,on the one hand,will lead to an increase in unemployment,on the other hand,it will also prepare the productive conditions for the realization of"comprehensive and free development"of mankind.