2019年香港经济形势及2020年展望--兼论修例风波及新冠肺炎疫情对香港经济的影响

Hong Kong’s Economic Situation in 2019 and the Outlook in 2020: The Impact of the Extradition Law Protest and COVID-19 on Hong Kong’s Economy

2019年香港经济遭受到修例风波和外部因素夹击,出现了十年来的首次负增长。中美贸易摩擦使香港经济陷入低增长,本地修例风波则是引发经济衰退的主要诱因。2020年香港经济正面对中美贸易摩擦、修例风波和新冠肺炎疫情"三险叠加"的困局,尤其是肆虐全球的新冠肺炎疫情进一步恶化可能引发全球金融危机和经济收缩,香港将出现比2009年全球金融海啸时期更严重的经济衰退,预期失业率将升至5.5%。不过全球救市行动、内地经济将呈V型走势以及政府推出的大规模纾困措施,或将部分对冲香港经济下行压力。

In 2019, under the impact of the Extradition Law Protest compounded by external factors,Hong Kong’s economy registered negative growth for the first time in the past decade. Trade frictions between China and the United States have sent Hong Kong’s economic growth slowing down while local Extradition Law Protest is the main cause of economic recession. In 2020, Hong Kong’s economy confronts Sino-US trade frictions, Extradition Law Protest and COVID-19. In particular, should the COVID-19 pandemic worsen, it might cause global financial crisis and economic contraction. Hong Kong will suffer an economic recession even worse than that during the 2009 global financial tsunami. The unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 5.5%. However, the global market rescue, the V-shaped trend of the mainland economy and the large-scale rescue measures launched by the government may partially hedge the downward pressure of Hong Kong’s economy.