改进物元可拓在航班延误预警中的应用

Application of improved matter-element extension in flight delay warning

航班延误预警是典型的多因素问题。为解决该问题,从空管的角度出发,基于容量变化、需求变化两方面选取机场通行能力下降率等6个代表性指标,构建航班延误预警指标构架。对物元可拓模型,使用变权理论确定其指标权重值,用规格化改进和非对称贴进度计算贴进度,得到改进模型。最后对我国危险天气条件下的某空域进行仿真验证,对比原有模型和改进后的模型。评价结果表明了改进后模型的有效性。

The flight delay warning has become a typical multi-factor question. Proceeding from the perspective of air traffic control,six representative indicators such as the decline rate of airport traffic capacity are selected on the basis of two aspects of capacity change and demand change to build a flight delay warning indicator framework. In the matter-element extension model,the index weight value is determined by means of the variable weight theory,the normalization improvement is carried out and the asymmetric paste progress rate is used to calculate the paste progress rate,so as to obtain its improved model. The simulation verification of a certain airspace in China under the dangerous weather conditions is carried out,and the improved model and original model are compared. The evaluation results have proved the effectiveness of the improved model.