源于自然灾害的政府或有债务风险管理——一个分析框架

Risk Management of Government Contingent Liabilities from Natural Disasters--An Analysis Framework

自然灾害所造成的损失通常且很大程度上由政府财政承担,这种事后政府财政成本在自然灾害发生前往往以政府或有债务的形式存在。而源于自然灾害的政府或有债务会对一国政府财政产生重要的影响。目前,国内研究如何管理源于自然灾害政府或有债务的文献并不多见,实践中也没有针对此类债务的相关制度设计;而国外却有不少相关文献聚焦于此类或有债务的研究,为了减轻此类债务可能给一国财政带来的沉重负担,很多国家还设计了各种针对自然灾害风险的事前和事后融资工具。通过总结各国政府用于紧急救灾、恢复和灾后重建的风险融资工具及每一种工具的相对成本和调动资金用于救灾的速度,我们试图建立一个可供我国政府参考的源于自然灾害的政府或有债务管理框架。

The losses caused by natural disasters are usually and to a large extent borne by the government finance.This kind of after the fact government financial cost often exists in the form of government contingent debt before natural disasters.Therefore,the government contingent debt from natural disasters will have an important impact on the government finance.At present,there are few literatures about how to manage the contingent liabilities of governments from natural disasters in China,and there is no relevant system design for this kind of debt in practice.However,there are many literatures abroad that focus on this kind of contingent liabilities.In order to reduce the heavy burden that this kind of debt may bring to a country's finance,many countries have also designed a variety of things for natural disaster risk Pre and post financing instruments.By summarizing the risk financing tools used by governments for emergency relief,recovery and post disaster reconstruction,the relative cost of each tool and the speed of mobilizing funds for disaster relief,we try to establish a government contingent debt management framework that can be used for reference by our government.