巫山县4-10月降水量精细模拟及应用研究

Fine Simulation and Application Research of Precipitation from April to October in Wushan

基于巫山县雨量站点实测数据和DEM数据,利用GIS空间插值技术,采用普通克里金法、反距离权重法、样条函数法、趋势面法、经验贝叶斯克里金法、高程协同克里金法和坡向协同克里金插值法7种空间插值方法,对巫山县4-10月多年月平均降水量进行了模拟,分析了不同插值方法的精细程度。研究结果表明:①样条函数法不适用于样本数据波动较大的情况;②从月份层面来看,6月降雨插值效果最好;从插值方法来看,7种插值方法精度排序为:普通克里金法>经验贝叶斯克里金法>引入高程因子的协同克里金法>引入坡向因子的协同克里金法>趋势面法>反距离权重法>样条函数法;③巫山县4-10月总降水量分布格局为从西部向东部逐渐递增,东南地区以及东北行政交界地带水资源总量高于全县水平,占全县面积18.58%。研究结果可为巫山县水资源利用和洪水灾害预警提供参考意见。

Based on the measured data and DEM data of the rainfall station in Wushan,using the GIS spatial interpolation technique,seven spatial interpolation methods,namely,ordinary Kriging method,inverse distance weight method,spline function method,trend surface method,empirical Bayesian Kriging method,elevation coordinated Kriging method and slope coordinated Kriging interpolation method are adopted for Wushan County from April to October.The average annual and monthly precipitation was simulated and the precision of different interpolation methods was analysed.The results show that:the spline function method is not applicable to the case where the sample data fluctuates greatly;from the month level the interpolation effect of June rainfall is the best;from the interpolation method,the order of accuracy of seven interpolation methods is:ordinary kriging methods experience Bayesian gold methods co—kriging method introducing elevation factor>cooperative kriging method introducing slope factor〉trend surface method〉anti—distance weight method〉spline Function method;The distribution pattern of total precipitation from April to October gradually increased from the west to the east in Wushan,and the total water resources in the southeast and northeast administrative junctions were higher than the city level,accounting for 1&58%of the county.The results can provide reference for water resources utilization and flood disaster warning in Wushan.