结构视角下我国M2影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of M2 in China from the Perspective of Structure

我国M2/GDP的高值被各界广泛关注,是否存在货币超发也引起了各方热烈讨论。本文分析认为我国M2统计口径、融资结构、经济发展模式、流动性创造方式、货币政策调控模式等都与发达经济体具有较大差异,因此我国M2/GDP与发达经济体不具有简单可比性。从流动性创造方式看,银行信贷是M2创造的主要方式,投资拉动的经济增长模式是信贷扩张的主导因素,国有企业、地方政府融资平台和房地产是信贷扩张的主要渠道。另外,货币调控模式也对M2具有重要影响。

The high value of M2/GDP in China has been widely concerned by all walks of life,and whether there is an excessive currency issue has also aroused a heated discussion.This paper finds China's statistical caliber of M2,financing structure,economic development mode,liquidity creation mode and monetary policy regulation mode are very different with developed economies’.Therefore,it’s unsuitable to simply compare the M2/GDP between China and developed economies.Bank credit is the main channel of M2 creation from the perspective of liquidity creation mode,and the investment driven economic growth mode is the leading factor of credit expansion.This paper finds state-owned enterprises,local government financing platform and real estate are the main channels of credit expansion.In addition,the monetary control mode also has an important impact on M2.