中国就业市场的新变化:机遇、挑战及对策

NEW CHANGE OF CHINA'S JOB MARKET:OPPORTUNITIES,CHALLENGES AND COUNTERMEASURES

过去十多年,中国在就业方面取得了举世瞩目的成就。在瑞士洛桑管理学院发布的《2017年度世界竞争力报告》中,中国在就业、国内经济和劳动力市场这三项指标上名列全球第一。但近几年,随着中国经济下行压力的增大,叠加近期新冠肺炎疫情的冲击,中国城镇调查失业率在2020年2月提高至6.2%,中国就业市场景气指数(CIER)从2020年1月份的2.47下降至3月份的1.02,为10年来的最大降幅,中国就业市场压力凸显。当前,中国就业市场最需要关注的四个新变化分别是:劳动力供给下降、平台型就业发展、结构性矛盾持续与不确定性因素加大。这些新变化带来了诸多挑战:劳动供给的持续下降在减少就业市场压力的同时,也带来了老龄化背景下的养老问题;平台型就业发展在推动就业数量扩大的同时,也产生了就业极化与就业质量问题;结构性矛盾持续对就业质量产生了十分不利的影响;不确定性因素加大带来了经济下行、失业增多的压力。但这些挑战同时也是提升就业质量、改善内需结构、提升政府治理能力的机遇。因此,在就业政策方面,我们提出四个方面的应对策略:保持宏观经济稳定,为稳就业创造条件;对人工智能等新技术持积极谨慎的态度;强化信息流动,提升市场效率;深化教育培训改革,重视软技能培养。

Over the past decade,China has made remarkable achievements in employment.In the 2017 World Competitiveness Report released by International Institute for Management Development(IMD)in Switzerland,China ranked first in the world in terms of employment,domestic economy and labor market.But in recent years,with the increase of economic downturn pressure in China and the impact of COVID-19 recently,the unemployment rate in China's urban areas has increased to 6.2%in February 2020.CIER has dropped from 2.47 in January to 1.02 in March2020,which is the largest drop in 10 years and highlights the pressure of China's job market.At present,the four new changes that need most attention in China's job market are as follows:The decrease of labor supply,the development of platform-type employment,the persistence of structural contradictions and the increase of uncertainty factors.These new changes bring many challenges,and the continuous decline of labor supply not only relieves the pressure of job market,but also brings pension problems under the background of population aging;platform-type employment development not only promotes the increase of employment quantity,but also produces employment polarization and quality problems;structural contradictions have a great negative impact on the employment quality;the increase of uncertainty has brought the pressure of economic downturn and increase of unemployment.However,these challenges are also opportunities for improving the employment quality,the structure of domestic demand and the ability of government governance.Therefore,we put forward four countermeasures to seize the opportunity in terms of employment policy:maintain the macroeconomic stability and create conditions for stable employment;take a positive and cautious attitude towards new technologies such as AI;strengthen information fl ow and improve market effi ciency;deepen the reform of education and training and attach importance to the cultivation of soft skills.